So there was a Turkey that was born the day after Thanksgiving 2010 on a small rural farm. On the first day of his life, he was well cared for and fed the best turkey food around. On day two of his life, he was well cared for and fed the best turkey food around. The pattern continued day in and day out, and the Turkey grew and was very pleased with his life. On the day before Thanksgiving 2011 he ran into his friend, the Horse, who advised the Turkey of the fate he would face the next day and encouraged him to head for the hills. As the Turkey listen to the Horse, he quickly deployed his superior turkey intellect. He thought “The Horse is incorrect! There is no way that I will be in danger tomorrow.  I have been alive for 364 days (the denominator) and for 364 days I have been well cared for and fed (the numerator). The probability that I will be well cared for and fed tomorrow is 364/364 = 1, a 100%! The Horse is paranoid and I am going no where.” Well I’m sure you can imagine the fate of the Turkey. Let’s just say that while the Lions played the Cowboys the family was very very sleepy.

I wonder, how many times we forecast the future based on the data of the past? How often do we fail to recognize the new context we face in a scenario?  Why do we rely solely on our “superior turkey intellect” rather then listen for the voice of God or consider those he sends to help us discern? I know for me, most often my decisions about finances, career, and my well being are largely left to my “turkey intellect”….it’s not even superior! Not to the surprise of anyone, I have found myself on the dinner plate a few times when I could have avoided it by considering the suggestions of those people whom God has placed before me.

By the way, who said high school Math would not come in handy! That my friend, is a cool lesson in probability and its power or lack there of.  Thanks Dr. Lobo!

Hasta Pronto,

Danny Estavillo